University of Minnesota researchers found Minnesota’s climate will likely be “significantly different” from what it was like near the end of the 20th century. Among the key points researchers found:
- Winter temperatures could rise by 11 degrees by the end of the 21st century.
Snow depth could decrease by more than 5 inches, especially in east-central Minnesota - The number of days per year with snow cover may decrease by up to 55 days, especially in central Minnesota
- Precipitation in the spring could increase by more than a half-inch per day over northern Minnesota.
- Summers, which haven’t warmed significantly up to now, could see temperatures rise by 7 degrees by the end of the century.
From Dr. Stefan Liess, lead researcher: “Early awareness and mitigation have the potential to preserve valuable ecosystems for future generations. Mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be put in place to address these future changes. These projections would impact multiple important state sectors including agriculture, pest management, water and energy management, forestry, health care (adaptation to heat-related health issues) and tourism.”
Climate experts have said warmer temperatures have already and will continue to impact Minnesota’s native plants and trees, damage crops, and can harm Minnesota’s lakes and rivers. Less snow and ice coverage in the winter can impact the health of the lakes, while also offering fewer days to ice fish and snowmobile, impacting the tourism industry. More precipitation can lead to flooding that damages crops, homes and businesses, as well as leading to more stormwater runoff that, combined with hotter temperatures, can cause harmful algal blooms in Minnesota’s lakes.
Article Abstract
Minnesota is the state with the strongest winter warming in the contiguous United States. We performed regional climate projections at 10 km horizontal resolution using the WRF model forced with eight CMIP5 GCMs. The selected GCMs have previously been found to be in relatively good agreement with observations over Minnesota compared to other members of the CMIP5 model ensemble. Our projections suggest ongoing warming in all seasons, especially in winter, as well as shallower snow depth and fewer days with snow cover. We expect significant increases in spring and early summer heavy precipitation events. Our comparisons between different time slices and two different emission scenarios indicate a climate for the state of Minnesota near the end of the 21st century that is significantly different from what has been observed by the end of the 20th century. Winters and summers are expected to be up to 6oC and 4oC warmer, respectively, over northern and central Minnesota and spring precipitation may increase by more than 1 mm d-1 over northern Minnesota. Especially over the central part of the state, winter snow depth is projected to decrease by more than 12 cm and the number of days per year with snow depth of more than 2.54 cm (one inch) is expected to decrease by up to 55.
Read the full article here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2021EA001893